Design Gym: Scenario Planning

Background
What process is beneficial in uncertain and volatile environments where traditional planning methods may be inadequate?

Scenario planning is a powerful tool that organisations use to anticipate and prepare for the future. By developing a range of plausible scenarios and exploring the potential impact of each one, groups can make better decisions and build more resilient strategies. To create effective scenarios, it’s essential to identify the key drivers of change, develop multiple scenarios, and test and refine them to ensure they are robust and comprehensive.

There are several reasons why we use scenario planning. First, it helps us identify potential opportunities and threats that may arise in the future. We can develop more robust and adaptable strategies by considering different scenarios, enabling us to respond effectively to environmental changes.

Second, scenario planning promotes creativity and innovation within the organisation. It encourages leaders to think beyond their current assumptions and mental models, challenging them to consider broader possibilities.

Finally, scenario planning can improve communication and collaboration within the organization. By involving different stakeholders in the process, scenario planning can help build consensus and a shared understanding of the company’s challenges.

Our Workshop

What frameworks and processes are helpful when creating scenarios with clients? No scenario is good or bad; they merely provide a set of drivers and/or constraints for teams to co-design a cogent response.

Ideally, we should have scenarios that fit into at least one of these four archetypes:

• Continued Growth/Improvement — continuing from the current state along a positive trajectory. (dissemination of current best practices with decreased mortality levels)

• Discipline — the best possible result of harmonious stabilisation from the current state. (ex. Norway, a petro state, is working to build a 100% electric transportation system.)

• Collapse — the system reaches its limits of capacity and resilience. (a convergence of driving forces)

• Transformation — a transformative event causes a radical departure from the current state. (birth, marriage, divorce, major illness, winning the lottery)

When building future scenarios, many methodologies exist, for example, the Shell Method—which is rigorous and has multiple phases over months or years—and the simple 2×2 matrix method.

Please join us and be ready to share your experience and insights as a group.

SUGGESTED MATERIALS: A sketchbook, white wall, flipchart, iPad, and simple drawing tools. Plus, your fanciest strategic thinking hat.