The Value Web Design Gym: Scenario Planning Graphic. Host: Peter Durand
Tuesday, May 2, 2023


8:00 AM – 9:30 AM PDT/Los Angeles
10:00 AM – 11:30 AM CDT/Chicago
11:00 AM – 12:30 PM EDT/New York

16:00 – 17:30 BST/London
17:00 – 18:30 CEST/Paris
18:00 – 19:30 EAT/Nairobi
19:00 – 20:30 GST/Dubai

Check your time zone here

Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now. And any plan is only a scenario, usually wildly optimistic. As a result, scenario planning can lead to a severe underestimation of the risk of failure. So how might we practise planning better?

“Quality in a service or product is not what you put into it. It is what the customer gets out of it.”
– Peter Drucker

HOST: TVW Board Member & Graphic Facilitator Peter Durand

Recording and Session Notes Available Here

What process is beneficial in uncertain and volatile environments where traditional planning methods may be inadequate?

Scenario planning is a powerful tool that organisations use to anticipate and prepare for the future. By developing a range of plausible scenarios and exploring the potential impact of each one, groups can make better decisions and build more resilient strategies. To create effective scenarios, it’s essential to identify the key drivers of change, develop multiple scenarios, and test and refine them to ensure they are robust and comprehensive.

There are several reasons why we use scenario planning. First, it helps us identify potential opportunities and threats that may arise in the future. We can develop more robust and adaptable strategies by considering different scenarios, enabling us to respond effectively to environmental changes.

Second, scenario planning promotes creativity and innovation within the organisation. It encourages leaders to think beyond their current assumptions and mental models, challenging them to consider broader possibilities.

Finally, scenario planning can improve communication and collaboration within the organization. By involving different stakeholders in the process, scenario planning can help build consensus and a shared understanding of the company’s challenges.

Our Workshop

What frameworks and processes are helpful when creating scenarios with clients? No scenario is good or bad; they merely provide a set of drivers and/or constraints for teams to co-design a cogent response.

Ideally, we should have scenarios that fit into at least one of these four archetypes:

  • Continued Growth/Improvement — continuing from the current state along a positive trajectory. (dissemination of current best practices with decreased mortality levels)

  • Discipline — the best possible result of harmonious stabilisation from the current state. (ex. Norway, a petro state, is working to build a 100% electric transportation system.)

  • Collapse — the system reaches its limits of capacity and resilience. (a convergence of driving forces)

  • Transformation — a transformative event causes a radical departure from the current state. (birth, marriage, divorce, major illness, winning the lottery)

When building future scenarios, many methodologies exist, for example, the Shell Method—which is rigorous and has multiple phases over months or years—and the simple 2×2 matrix method.

Please join us and be ready to share your experience and insights as a group.

SUGGESTED MATERIALS: A sketchbook, white wall, flipchart, iPad, and simple drawing tools. Plus, your fanciest strategic thinking hat.

Your Host
Peter Durand is an artist, educator, and graphic facilitator in Houston, Texas (USA). He was born in the highlands of Kenya but grew up near the Appalachian Mountains in the eastern United States. He studied painting, illustration, and printmaking at Washington University in St. Louis, the Cité des Arts in Paris, and the Academy of Fine Arts in Krakow, Poland. He worked his first DesignShop® in 1996, founded Alphachimp in 1998, and has been involved in growing the practice of graphic recording and facilitation ever since.

Since 2007, he has facilitated the MGT-designed NavCenter at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee. He has worked with talented clinicians, administrators, faculty, students, and patients in one of the nation’s leading healthcare networks.

For more details and to contact Peter: click here.

Image made with Midjourney AI.

This event is free to all participants. 
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