As Copenhagen draws closer, and as our own efforts around collecting some data for a business session in Copenhagen are increasing, it occurred to me that I might write a piece for the website here. I have been inundated, as I am doing research on the climate crisis, with pleas from organizations that are spending every second of their day trying to raise awareness about the proceedings that are to take place in mid December – COP15. The Value Web, although not hugely vocal on the website until this point, is very actively thinking through how we can contribute to the development of new partnerships, working/business models, and can better facilitate the more effective sharing of information and knowledge that is needed in order to respond to this crisis at an appropriate scale. We are also engaging with our partners, communities, clients, friends, about how we can best address the root cause of this crisis. In the event we are just coming from in Berlin with the Berlin Civil Society Center, one participant referred to the climate crisis as a symptom – which it indeed is – and called on the others in the room (and around the globe) to stand up and address the root cause of the crises (all of them – food, water, energy, resources, etc…) – the “dragon in the cave.” The Value Web is actively trying to mobilize on a variety of fronts to start/continue that dialogue – across all sectors. I speak for myself here, since I have not shared this post with the rest of the group before publishing, but I can only assume, given our common intent and our demonstrated commitment to design and facilitate meaningful dialogue, that we are interested in pushing the envelope on this issue. It is very clear that the nature/scale of the climate crisis is tremendous. I was watching the press release today from the IEA – they have just released their World Energy Outlook just a couple of days ago. You can watch the video yourself here: http://tinyurl.com/yz57v77.
To summarize a few of the key points coming out of this report (from tweets I wrote while watching):
The cost of inaction increases by around 500 billion dollars every year we wait… for every years that passes, the window of action on emissions over a given period become narrower and narrower.
We need to proceed with caution and optimism. Continuation on the current energy track puts us on track for rise in global temperature by 6 degrees – which is catastrophic. We need to take action NOW, and it IS possible, with political will.
We need a revolution in car production. Today – 99% of cars are built on conventional technologies. To get to 450ppm by 2030 60% of cars need to be built on advanced technologies.
It is very clear that the revolution is more likely to take place if there is an adequate framework in place.
Major transformation needs to take place – Electricity production is key…
China will play the most important role in addressing climate change.
China is pushing for the equivalent reduction of 1 Gigatonne CO2 – which is more than 25% of what we need globally by 2030.
If China reaches this target it would be a major benefit for the rest of the world
The other biggest responsibility lies on the shoulders of the United States. We would like to see the development of national policies and international sectoral standards.
CO2 storage will have to play a key role
“All countries HAVE TO MOVE. When they move there are a few energy technologies and policies that are crucial.” Each country will need to focus on 1. Energy efficiency 2. Renewable energies 3. Nuclear power (reminder – all these points are coming from the IEA)
“Gas may well be a transition fuel to move towards a clean energy future.” – IEA
Even in a 450 context – OPEC revenues will increase 4x in real terms – and we will find a solution. Revenue doesn’t have to go away. According to the IEA, OPEC revenues are as follows: by following policies in place, OPEC will see revenues within 28 Trillion USD between 2008 and 2030. If there is “a deal,” revenues will be “only” 24 Trillion USD. (IEA underlined the word “only” with some sense of incredulity and in my mind derision)
Even in a 450ppm context. OPEC production needs to increase by 11 mb/d in 2030.
18% = share of renewables and nuclear. If we are to get to 450ppm this will have to double.
“WE NEED A DEAL IN COPENHAGEN, and a financial signal needs to be sent to the energy sector. Without that signal, nothing will move.”
IEA is looking at 450ppm not 350ppm.
Global temperature may increase up to 6 degrees if we stay on the current path. This would be catastrophic.
Without finding a solution in the energy sector we have NO CHANCE of dealing with the climate challenge.
Energy and poverty is a key issue. W/ current policies in place, by 2030 – still 1.3 billion people will have no access to electricity.
Analysis of IEA shows, on country by country basis – Today, 1.5 billion people (most in sub saharan africa) have NO ACCESS to electricity. None.
India is going to take over Japan around 2020 as the third largest spender on oil and gas. Top 3 – China, Us, India.
“China will overtake the US in 2025 of largest spender on oil and gas.”
Last year we said ”the era of cheap oil is over.” We continue to say this, regardless of the actual price per barrel. (from the WEO)
3/4 of buying is done in l/t contracts in europe. Asia – 55% l/t/ contracts – rest on market terms. Look at gas pricing options..
Gas as a commodity vs gas sold in l/t contracts…buyers who have l/t contracts may want to discuss the terms again..
“As a result of US boom – LNG exports from abroad going to US now slowing. Implications strong..”
Domestic production is increasing and the need for import declining – this has huge implications on the global market…
There is a silent revolution taking place in the US…The boom of unconventional gas. The world has not yet understood the implications…
60% of the production in 2030 will need to come (to meet demand growth) from fields that are not yet currently producing. There is a huge investment need…
Oil demand today – 85 million barrels per day. Will move to 105 million by 2030 with existing policies in place. World Energy Outlook (WEO).
Oil investments will go down about 19.4% compared to 2008 – equal to about 90 billion USD decline.
600 of the largest fields = 55% global gas production today. Production will decline by half by 2030 if we stick with what we have.
AND…if you put this together with the previous picture that investment in oil is declining…WEO is “worried.
In order to be at the level of production in 2030 that we are in 2008 – we need to find/fund the equivalent of “4 new Saudi Arabias.” crazy
The fields that are producing oil today are going through significant decline. WEO suggests we need MORE investment in oil, not less. hmm.
OECD countries – energy demand is more or less flat – result of the saturation effect.
“40% of global demand for energy comes from China. India and Middle East countries are also very important players. ” WEO
Energy is core to the problem, and needs to be core to the solution. WEO ]
WEO finds that gas has a key role to play in a bridging role…as we move towards more sustainable solutions.
Demand will increase by 40% by 2030 with vast bulk of demand met by fossil fuels. profound implications for security, development, cc…
So – just some things to consider, from one source, of course – but relatively severe in terms of the outlook on the future of energy and very clear in terms of what is needed (scale) to meet the crisis head on.
It is very clear that Copenhagen is a decisive opportunity to put the world onto a sustainable energy path. It is achievable, but only with strong global action and leadership. Ask yourself – “what can I do to make sure that the appropriate conversations are being had on the climate challenge… ” First – call/contact your local political leadership and let them know you are expecting a deal. We need to use the power of political pressure to send a very strong and clear message to our leadership. You can visit any of the following websites to learn more.
I hope this preliminary list proves useful as you yourself come to an understanding of the current climate crisis. It is meant to be starting point to begin to investigate more of the many facets of the climate debate. Any and all comments are welcome – more tomorrow…
Some interesting videos I’ve been finding during my scouring of the web…